The Scottish Chambers of Commerce was careful to avoid using the phrase in today's quarterly business survey, choosing instead to talk of "glimmers of hopes" and "positive indications".
Such caution is understandable given that the bulk of the report makes for predictably gloomy reading.
Here are some highlights (should that be lowlights?).
Three-quarters of manufacturing and construction respondents and some four-fifths of wholesale and retail businesses reported being less confident than a year ago. Not good.
Over the next year more than 60 per cent of manufacturers anticipate declining trends in total domestic orders. Ouch.
And, crucially, on the jobs front, the number of manufacturing businesses cutting staff is said to have "increased significantly" in the first quarter while no retail firms either increased or exp
ect to increase total employment levels.
Which suggests unemployment is heading in only one direction.
And those glimmers of hope? Well, the Chambers reckons Scottish manufacturers will be enjoying a modest rise in export activity by this time next year, "helping lead the Scottish economy from recession and into growth".
Meanwhile, the much-vaunted Year of Homecoming together with the prospect of a decent summer (could it be any worse than last year?) provides the "potential for recovery in our tourist sector".
Those positive vibes would appear to be spreading.
According to monetary policy committee member-designate David Miles, the worst of the recession may be over.
In an interview published today, he argues that interest rate cuts and efforts to rid the banks of their toxic debts are starting to work.
"Substantial cuts in interests rates and more quantitative easing is likely, with a certain time lag, to have a substantial impact on demand in the economy and it may well be that the worst of the recession may well be behind us," he says.
Miles, who is set to replace the dovish David Blanchflower on the MPC in June, adds: "I'm less pessimistic than many of where the economy may be going."
We came into this recession with a bang, after the housing market practically collapsed overnight. Some believe the recovery could be equally marked.
I'm afraid I don't share that optimism.
Too much of the recent ebullience stems from the positive impact of the weak pound – an upturn in export activity, tourists beating a trail to these shores, etc. All of which sounds a bit medium term to me.
Some worryingly fundamentals remain – rising unemployment, tumbling corporate profitability, soaring government borrowing. The Chancellor, busy cobbling together his make-or-break Budget, faces a ticking time bomb.
Have we really reached a floor? Could there be a further deterioration before those tentative green shoots take hold?
That, dear readers, remains the $64,000 question.
But, maybe, just maybe, things are looking less bad than they were at the turn of the year.
