Blink and you’ll miss another stack of festive trading updates.
After statements from the likes of Debenhams, John Lewis, Marks & Sparks and Next earlier in the week, this morning (Thursday) sees Sainsbury’s, House of Fraser, Ted Baker and Majestic Wine chip in with their tuppence worth.
Yet again, the signals are mixed.
Let’s kick off on a positive note, though. Jamie Oliver still appears to be working his magic at Britain’s number three grocer.
Hailing its best-ever Christmas, Sainsbury’s said like-for-like sales had risen an impressive 4.5 per cent in the 13 weeks to 3 January.
It’s the first of the "big four" supermarket chains to report on festive trading and appears to have thrown down the gauntlet to its rivals.
That 4.5 per cent figure also makes an appearance in House of Fraser’s Xmas snapshot, though this time it relates to total sales.
On a like-for-like basis (that’s the one that strips out new store openings and additional se
lling space and tends to be a more accurate indicator) sales dipped 1.5 per cent in the five weeks to 3 January.
And despite launching half-price offers in the run-up to Christmas, profit margins appear to have held up
– welcome news to the consortium, led by troubled Icelandic investor Baugur, which took HoF private in 2006.
So to the bad news.
Designer fashion outfit Ted Baker has lowered its profits guidance after feeling the heat from a cut-throat Christmas for fashion retailers. Gross margins were 2.5 per cent below those achieved a year earlier.
Despite profit downgrades from the City, the company’s founder and chief executive Ray Kelvin was putting a brave face on it, pointing to a "creditable performance in a very challenging market".
Meanwhile, the fizz appears to have gone out of sales at Majestic Wine, the UK’s biggest wine warehouse business.
Underlying sales were down 2.9 per cent in the 10 weeks to 5 January, compared with 1.2 per cent growth during the run-up to Christmas 2007.
There was also gloomy news this morning that the administrators for troubled music and DVD chain Zavvi are taking the axe to 22 stores, including Scottish outlets in Ayr, Sterling Mills, Livingston and the Cameron Toll shopping centre in Edinburgh. Across the UK, almost 180 jobs will go.
You can bet that we’ll see more high street victims in the coming months as the sale and clearance signs come down and footfall takes a dive.
For those retailers that have been struggling for some time through intense competition, the recession is likely to prove the final straw.
But then, we’ve had plenty of warnings, long before the credit crunch hit, that there are simply too many shops, out-of-town malls and retail parks for the size of population. A purge may be no bad thing.
Winners and losers? ’Twas ever the case. In 2009, though, expect the latter to outnumber the former.
